Advanced Outlook: Clemson-Notre Dame projections

Audric Estime posted his best PFF grade of last season versus Clemson in a 35-14 win over the Tigers. (Photo: Matt Cashore / USATODAY)

by Brandon Rink - Staff Writer - Wed Nov 01 12:11:03 GMT-04:00 2023

The roles for Saturday in Death Valley (noon/ABC) are a bit reversed from last year at this time for the Clemson-Notre Dame meeting.

Last season, Notre Dame was the home team with a disappointing record facing a highly-ranked opponent. While the Fighting Irish aren’t a 2023 Playoff contender, they have improved to 7-2 and No. 12 in the nation, and the Tigers are far from the No. 4 Playoff ranking they carried into South Bend last year, sitting at 4-4 currently.

Taking a closer look at how the teams compare:

Efficiency rankings

Team overall: Offense | Defense | Special teams

CU SP+ ranks ($) (21): 41 | 11 | 84

ND SP+ ranks (9): 19 | 8 | 64

CU FEI ranks (32): 47 | 10 | 124

ND FEI ranks (9): 19 | 9 | 2

CU FPI ranks (20): 64 | 7 | 133

ND FPI ranks (11): 15 | 14 | 8

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Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney called Notre Dame the most complete team the Tigers have faced this season, and the numbers back that up.

They hold unanimous Top 20 metric rankings on offense and defense, with the offense as high as No. 15 (FPI) and the defense as high as No. 8 (SP+). Two metrics also have them with a Top 10 special teams group.

Clemson’s defense is consensus Top 10, but it’s weighed down by an offense ranking from OK (No. 41 in SP+) to mediocre (No. 64 on FPI) and a special teams group that has no rankings above 84th (and last in the FBS per the FPI).

All eyes will be on the red zone for one side of the ball. The Tigers are coming off scoring in all three red-zone tries at NC State, with two being touchdowns, but they match a 124th-ranked group overall (70.7% scoring; just 53.7% TDs) against Notre Dame’s No. 2 red-zone defense (64%; 36 TD%, No. 5 nationally).

Three Notre Dame players to watch

1. RB Audric Estime

Estime had his top performance of the 2022 campaign versus Clemson by PFF grade (90.2), with 104 rushing yards and a TD and 72 of those yards coming with yards after contact. He had a regular-season best six missed tackles forced against Clemson’s defense.

Estime is Notre Dame’s 2023 leader in PFF grade (90.9) with 901 rushing yards, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and scoring 12 touchdowns. He has a lone fumble in 158 rushing snaps, which came back in the opener versus Navy in Ireland.

Sam Hartman struggled against Pitt - so Audric Estime said hold my beer 😎

☘️ 114 yards
☘️ 6.0 YPA
☘️ 3 TD
☘️ 80 yards after contact

The Fighting Irish RB deserves to be in the Heisman conversation 📈pic.twitter.com/WOSu9e9MM9
— Redshirt Heisman (@TasteOfSport) October 29, 2023

2. QB Sam Hartman

Hartman is back for Clemson’s defense to break down, but with a new team, after facing the Tigers four times already with Wake Forest. The last matchup was in a double OT loss to Clemson, where he tossed six touchdown passes and averaged 11.6 yards per throw.

In a new offense, Hartman is under his gaudy PFF grades from the last two seasons at Wake Forest (91.8/88.4 in 2021-22; 79 this season). He has a higher big-time throw percentage this season (7%) compared to last year (5.4%), however, and a higher yards per pass attempt average (9.3-8.6) with 18 touchdowns to five interceptions.

Hartman has been under pressure for 31.4% of his snaps and graded at just 32.9 there, but with a clean pocket, he holds a 92.5 grade, 10.2 yards per pass and 14 touchdowns to three interceptions. He faced more pressure last season at Wake Forest (33.1%) but graded better (49.8), while the pocket-kept-clean success was also apparent with the Deacs (93.1 grade/9.3 yards per pass/30 TDs to 7 INTs).

3. DL Howard Cross III

Only two other defensive linemen in college football are tagged with more pressures than Cross this season (29), ranking second in hurries (22) and seventh in QB hits (5). He, therefore, ranks second-best among defensive linemen in PFF grade (90) with success against the run (87.3) and as a pass rusher (85.9).

Howard Cross III
6’0 7/8, 288, DL #FightingIrish DT Cross was named to the midseason All-American team. Though size will be questioned for the next level, the tape shows a very active player that can often beat offensive linemen to the punch.

Cross is currently tied for 2nd… pic.twitter.com/R3hoFeSh1j
— Dominic White (@DomWWhite) October 26, 2023

Misc. Clemson stat of the week

Bringing this stat back, Clemson had the most dominant loss in college football last week, from a play-by-play net success rate perspective:

Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 9 pic.twitter.com/hft7k1KQUf
— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 30, 2023

That’s led by the defense giving up only 202 offensive yards for NC State, with 122 of those yards coming on just two plays from the dynamic Wolfpack receiver Kevin Concepcion.

Clemson also had fairly significant net success rate advantages in the losses to FSU and Duke:

Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 4 pic.twitter.com/68d7RNDaEJ
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 25, 2023

Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 1 https://t.co/pIvbehkgWh pic.twitter.com/X9DXbgHCa6
— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 11, 2023

The common thread in the opener and last loss is two or more turnovers, while the Duke and Florida State games also contained red zone struggles (5-of-10; only four touchdowns).

Turnovers and red zone efficiency are identified by Swinney as Clemson's biggest problems, and those two issues can offset success yardage-wise for sure.

Odds

Notre Dame -3; 45.5 over/under.

Metrics predictions

SP+ projection: Notre Dame 27-22 (60% Notre Dame projection)

FEI: Notre Dame 22-12 (73.8% Notre Dame projection)

ESPN FPI: 65.7% Notre Dame projection

NOTRE DAME @ CLEMSON pic.twitter.com/kFVST0M5yM
— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 1, 2023

Analysis: The projections all like the Irish to cover the minimal spread, and there are plenty of reasons to favor Notre Dame based off of what we've seen from the teams through nine-plus weeks.

This Clemson season has often been a converging of expectation versus result. The expectation with how Clemson’s roster is assembled and the recent successful run of the program has made it a favorite in all but one of the shocking four losses this season (and just a slight underdog in the defeat to a Top-5-ranked Florida State).

Once again, Clemson has the more talented roster this week, by the evaluation of several outlets, but that just hasn’t translated to results this year. In matchups like this, taking a show-me attitude to predict any Clemson success feels prudent. Pick: Notre Dame -3 (2-6 on ATS picks, 5-3 on over/under; Game score pick in TigerNet’s weekly game prediction story).